For the past several months, BC Premier David Eby has governed as though he had time to spare. He's fumbled DRIPA, advanced legislation to gut the province's freedom of information law, and presided over a record deficit heading into a period of global economic uncertainty. Now the numbers are catching up with him — and the opposition is finally organizing to finish the job.

A new Leger poll conducted in early April puts the NDP at 44 per cent support among decided BC voters — down from a peak of 48 per cent last fall. The Conservatives sit at 40 per cent, closing a gap that once looked comfortable. More damaging is the directional data: Eby's personal approval rating has fallen to 43 per cent — its lowest point since he took over as premier — while his disapproval has nearly doubled from 35 per cent to 44 per cent in just twelve months.

Leger vice-president Steve Mossop was blunt in his assessment: "If I was the NDP I'd be a bit worried about that… It's not alarm bells yet, but it should be concerning." More than half of British Columbians now believe the province is on the wrong track.

A Deficit Nobody Can Ignore

The poll was conducted before the full weight of the 2026-27 fiscal picture fully settled in. BC's projected deficit stands at a record $13.3 billion — a number that would have been politically disqualifying for any government just a few years ago. The Leger survey found that 46 per cent of British Columbians believe the government is spending too much — including, remarkably, nearly 30 per cent of the NDP's own supporters. Another 35 per cent say deficits should be limited even if it means cutting spending.

Housing affordability remains the top issue at 15 per cent, followed closely by healthcare at 14 per cent — two files where the NDP has governed for nearly a decade without reversing BC's trajectory. Housing costs have continued to climb. Emergency room wait times remain among the worst in the country. The government's response has been to expand bureaucracy, run deficits, and talk about process.

By The Numbers — BC NDP, April 2026

  • NDP support: 44% — down from 48% peak (fall 2025)
  • Conservative support: 40% — up 2 points since January
  • Eby approval: 43% — lowest since taking office
  • Eby disapproval: 44% — up from 35% in May 2025
  • Projected 2026-27 deficit: record $13.3 billion
  • British Columbians who think the province is on the wrong track: majority
  • NDP supporters who say the government spends too much: ~30%

The Opposition Sharpens Its Teeth

While Eby absorbs these numbers, the Conservative opposition just held its first official leadership debate. Five candidates faced off Friday night at the Kitsilano Ballroom in Vancouver's JW Marriott Parq hotel in a contest described as surprisingly intense — with gloves off from the opening statements.

The debate exposed real ideological fault lines within the party, but it also demonstrated that every credible contender is united on the core proposition: the NDP has failed British Columbia, DRIPA must go, and the spending must stop. The contest sharpens the message, regardless of who wins. A new Conservative leader — chosen with a mandate to roll back a decade of NDP governance — will enter the political arena with heightened profile, a unified party, and a government bleeding support.

"There's an uptick in the Conservative vote even before we see the debates and leadership vote and the publicity that comes with a new leader. If I was the NDP I'd be a bit worried about that."

— Steve Mossop, Leger Vice-President, April 2026

What the Trend Line Says

The fundamental problem for Eby isn't any single issue — it's accumulation. A government that has run continuous deficits, failed to solve the housing crisis despite years of promises, watched the Downtown Eastside deteriorate, bungled decriminalization, triggered a constitutional crisis over Indigenous land claims, and then moved to weaken the public's ability to scrutinize any of it via Bill-9 — that government is not in trouble because of one bad week. It's in trouble because the record has compounded.

The April poll was taken before the DRIPA caucus revolt made front pages, before the Conservative leadership debates began generating headlines, and before the Bill-9 FOI controversy fully crystallized in public debate. The next round of polling will be telling. Mossop's "not alarm bells yet" may already be out of date.

British Columbians are patient voters. They gave the NDP the benefit of the doubt through the pandemic, through the early years of Eby's leadership, through repeated promises on housing and healthcare. What the numbers now show is that patience running thin — and an opposition, for the first time in years, that is organized, energized, and closing fast.