Eby Asked for a Mandate. Voters See a Power Grab.
The first independent poll after the snap election call is not a mandate story. It is a backlash story.
David Eby asked British Columbians for a fresh mandate. The first independent poll after the writs were issued says many voters heard something else: a premier choosing timing over trust.
Angus Reid Institute’s September 24 survey, conducted September 22 to 24, puts the BC Conservatives at 43 per cent and the BC NDP at 35 per cent among decided and leaning voters. That is an eight-point Conservative lead at the starting line of a campaign Eby chose to start early.
The movement is the most damaging part for the premier. Angus Reid says that as recently as ten days earlier, the NDP held a four-point advantage over the BC Conservatives. After the snap call, that position flipped into an eight-point deficit.
The poll does not prove the final result. Angus Reid is clear that the campaign is young: one in five British Columbians are undecided, and only 35 per cent say they are very certain about their vote. It also reports that 56 per cent believe the BC Conservatives are not ready to govern. Those caveats matter.
But they do not rescue Eby’s core problem. Angus Reid found 62 per cent of British Columbians say it is too soon for an election. It also found 65 per cent say Eby is putting staying in power ahead of the province’s interests. That is not an opposition attack line. It is a public-opinion warning about the legitimacy of the timing.
Elections BC confirms the writs have been issued for the 44th Provincial General Election and that final voting day is Saturday, October 24, 2026. The election is lawful. The accountability question is whether it is justified.
That distinction is where the NDP is vulnerable. A premier can legally ask the Lieutenant Governor for dissolution. A premier still has to explain why British Columbians should accept an early campaign when most respondents in the first poll say the timing is wrong and nearly two-thirds see self-interest.
The NDP also has a base problem. Angus Reid reports that only 65 per cent of those who voted NDP in 2024 say they will do so again, compared with 85 per cent of past BC Conservative voters ready to recommit. The premier did not just open a campaign. He opened a test of whether his own coalition believes the early vote was necessary.
Eby wanted the ballot question to be leadership. Angus Reid’s first numbers make the ballot question narrower and tougher: why did B.C. need this election now?